Iran warns sanctions cooperators as Trump and Xi prepare for September summit

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration says it aims to sever every economic lifeline that is sustaining Iran in what officials have warned will be the toughest sanctions campaign ever seen. The threat, if followed through, would mean putting China, Iran's biggest trade partner, squarely in the crosshairs of U.S. sanctions. That would be a risky proposition for Washington due to the likelihood of severe blowback from Beijing, so much so that some analysts doubt that the Trump administration's measures set to be announced on Monday will match its rhetoric in scope or severity. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has warned that countries fearful of breaking ties with Iran should not discount the cost of testing Washington. Any American pressure campaign that excludes China would be necessarily limited in scope Given the outsized importance of Beijing and Tehran's economic ties China reported 9.96 billion US dollars in two-way trade with Iran in 2025 a figure that does not include some 31.2 billion US dollars in Iranian oil shipments according to the US China economic and security review Commission until now the Trump Trump administration's Iran sanctions regime has targeted only a handful of relatively minor China based entities in April The Trump administration sanctioned Hengli petrochemical or Dalian refinery One of China's largest independent refineries commonly known as teapots of its alleged purchases of Iranian oil Well, the Trump administration also imposed sanctions on four firms in Hong Kong in May this year followed by measures in August targeting six China- and Hong Kong-based shipping lines. Washington has so far left Chinese financial institutions, widely viewed as a key node in Iran's oil trade, untouched. Iran on its part has threatened to retaliate against the countries that support these American measures. America, the America that was supposed to come to help the Iranians, is using every means available to punish the Iranians simply for one reason, because of their resistance to pressure on their national independence, sovereignty and dignity. In this regard, the necessary warnings have certainly been given and are being given, because any kind of cooperation with America in advancing its aggressor's actions against Iran will certainly have its own consequences. For Trump, invoking Beijing's ire would risk not only economic retaliation but also unravelling efforts to destabilize U.S.-China relations only weeks before the U.S. president is due to host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House. Trump's scheduled summit with Xi on September 24 will be their second face-to-face meeting aimed at lowering the temperature in U.S.-China relations since Washington launched its war on Iran in late February and Trump's visit to Beijing in May. Well, the Trump administration could potentially make it more challenging and expensive for China to continue its economic support of Iran, it is unlikely to be able to stop Beijing outright if it is determined to maintain its ties. Many are questioning the effectiveness of the new round of economic penalties, but also will they change Iran's behavior? That's the big question, remember, because Tehran appears to believe that it can outlast America. Dr. Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, CFR. He's now joining us live on the broadcast. Doctor, it's good to see you. Thank you very much for making time for us. Who do you think is more isolated here? Is it America or Iran? And will these economic sanctions work? Well, clearly Iran is more isolated than the United States economically and diplomatically. I think what we're seeing here is really plan C by the Trump administration. Plan A was topple the regime. It didn't work. Plan B, bomb the regime into submission. It didn't work. Now we're at plan C, which is try to increase the economic pressure on Iran to back down and make a deal that Donald Trump can live with. Part of the problem is that Iran has been under economic sanctions for years, and it It has found various kinds of workarounds, some open, some covert to trade with its neighbors. Some of those linkages are going to be shut down. We already saw the United Arab Emirates say no more financial or trade transactions with Iran. But can this really succeed in turning off and cutting off any links between Iran and its neighbors, Iran and China? I'm doubtful that we're really gonna make a big difference here. So Dr. Charles, you know, help us understand this then. Do you then think that sanctions as an American foreign policy against Tehran has really become a rusted weapon now, considering the fact that, you know, Iran has been able to withstand these sanctions? Yes, its economy has been impacted. Yes, it has, you know, economically been isolated more than America. But do you think that as a foreign policy, it's not really as effective as perhaps it was during the time of, say, President Jimmy Carter. You know, I think we've learned from a large number of historical cases that sanctions are complicated and they don't really work as intended. Look at what's happened to Russia, right? After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its European allies effectively unplugged Russia from the Western economy, broke off trade ties, broke off financial ties. Well, Russia has succeeded in reorienting its trade, in looking south and looking to China, and the strangulation of Russia economically hasn't worked. Iran is a somewhat different case because it's more isolated, and what the United States is doing now is going to China and Turkey and Pakistan and to some extent India. These are countries that trade with Iran, saying we're going to punish you if you keep trading with Iran or helping them with financial transactions. But as you were just saying in your report, China, biggest partner, biggest trading partner of Iran, I think Trump is going to be very reluctant to throw the book at the Chinese if they continue trading with Iran at a time at which Trump is attempting to forge a good constructive relationship with Xi Jinping. And as you mentioned, Xi Jinping will be here in Washington in a month's time. All right. Let's wait and see how that relationship goes or how the economic D-Day will unfold after America announces it. Dr. Charles Kapchan, it's good to see you. Thank you very much for your time and for talking to us today. My pleasure. Bye-bye.